上海市人为灾害的灰色数列和拓扑预测

The Grey Prediction of Man-made Calamities with Numerical Array and Topology

人为灾害的原始数列是灰色系统，应用灰色数列预测ＧＭ（１，１）模型，导出该数列的响应函数，对上海城郊结合部的沪闵路的交通事故作出预测，并对预测模型做了检验，检验精度为１级．在原始数列摆动幅度较大的情况下，对南京东路沿线地区的火灾，用拓扑图形预测法进行预测．这两种方法的预测为人为灾害的防治决策部署提供了依据．

The original array of man-made calamities is a grey system. Engaging the respondent function of the grey army calculated from a GM (1, 1) forecasting model.The author predicted the traffic accidents occurred in the suburbs of Shanghai, e.g. Humin Road and the result is quite reliable under checking.Whereas in case of the original array having greater fluctuation, topological method was employed in this paper to perdicate disasters, e. g. the fires in the district of East Naming Road.The above two methods of prediction provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of man-made calamities.