摘要
提出了对电力负荷预测的灰色模型的改进方法。运用指数平滑法将有起伏变化的原始数据序列变换成近于指数增长的新样本数据序列。然后，采用普通灰色方法进行预测，从而进一步提高了预测精度，使其适用范围更加广泛。在对保定地区电力负荷预测的实际应用中，取得了满意的结果。
A grey method for electric-power-load prognosis and a method of its improvement are proposed. After taking the exponential smoothing technic to transfer the original data array into some close-to exponentially increasing sample array, the common grey method is used for prognosis. As a result, the accuracy of prognosis is increased, and the applicability of the method is widened. A practical application for the prognosis of power load in Baoding Area has been taken and the result is of perfect satisfaction.
出处
《现代电力》
1995年第4期44-50,共7页
Modern Electric Power
关键词
负荷预测
灰色模型
指数平滑法
load progrosis, grey model, method of exponential smoothing
