基于Box-Jenkins建模法对中国人口增长率预测及结果分析

中国人口增长预测问题在社会经济实践中占有十分重要的地位,而人口自然增长率是人口增长的一个重要的因素。为此,采用了统计学专用软件SPSS、EViews软件,运用Box-Jenkins建模方法对我国人口自然增长率进行预测。预测的结果与国家公布的数据是基本一致的。这些结论显示了Box-Jenkins建模法既能精确预测又简单易行具有较高的应用价值。

Chiua＇s population growth forecast in the socio-economic problems in practice a very important position, and the natural population growth rate of population growth is an important factor. To this end, we used SPSS statistical software dedicated, EYiews software; using Box- Jenkins method of modeling the natural growth rate of china^s population is forecast. The forecast results with the national figt^res released by the basic agreement. These findings show that the Box-Jenkins metbod can accurately forecast modeling and simple, in our upcoming employment peak population, the method has a higher value.