气压场巨涨落与非线性地震系统状态的突变和临震预报研究（上）

THE EFFECT OF THE GIANT FLUCTUATION OF ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE FIELD TO THE ABRUPT CHANGE OF NONLINEAR SEISMIC SYSTEM CONDITION AND THE IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH

本研究以非线性孕震系统在爆发前夕的外敏性为物理基础，对大气扰动下的岩体失稳突变问题进行了初步的探讨，给出了气─－地耦合的一般表示，并连续分析了云南近３５年来大气压力场演化与场内近百次５级以上地震（内含１９次６级，４次７级）的基本关系，系统地证明了绝大部分强震都是在其上覆大气涨落加剧及与邻区气压梯度增大时突然爆发的，这种自然共性的揭示，既是对理论的认证，也丰富了短临地震预报的科学依据。

In this study report, taking the out-sensitivity in unlinear earthquake developing system beforethe eve of break out as the physics basis, a problem of sudden change on rock baby out-of-stabilization under the situation of atmospheric disturbance has been primarily probed into. The general expressions of atmosphere--earth coupling and critical condition of the coupling have been given. The basicrelation between atmospheric pressure field evolution and near one hundred earthquakes with M≥5. 0(including 19 earthquakes with M= 6 and 4 with M=7) have been studied using 35-year continuousdata in Yunnan. It has been systematically proved that most of the strong earthquake bed happened atthe time when atmospheric fluctuation, random disturbance around mean values, suddenly increased to a certain threshold and gradient of atmospheric pressure comparing with neighboring area obviously went up.Above theoretic seeking and the revelation of atmosphere earth related general character have provided scientific bases for short-imminent earthquake from the angle of mechanics of earthquake-generating.