地震前兆场源关系复杂性初探

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON THE COMPLEXITY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SEISMIC PRECURSORY FIELD AND THE SOURCE

在地震预报的实践过程中，我们深深的体会到地震前兆场源关系的深入了解是十分必要的。虽然地震预报是世界性的难题，但是，只要我们在实践的基础上，能从理论上对这一演化物理问题有逐渐深入的认识，在一定的条件下，对某些地震做出中期和短临预报是很有可能的。本文以共和地震为例，对地震前兆场源关系的复杂性进行了初步的分析研究。其结果认为，正确的认识场源关系，以场求源，以源推场，场源结合，跟踪短临异常是实现短临地震预报的前提和基础。

It's very important to study the relationship between the seismic Ptedursory field and the sourcein the earthquake prediction, Though the earthquake prediction is a worldwide difficult Problem, it isalso probsbility to make the medium term and the short-impending Prdstions on the certain conditions from the theory of the physical evolution. Take the Gonghe earthqode for example, this peperhas made a preliminary analysis on the complexity of the relatipnship between the Ptecutsory field andthe source before the earthquake. The results show that understanding correctly the relationship between the field and the source, finding out the source from the field, inferring the field ftom thesource, combining them together and following the short-impending anomalies are the basis and thepresuppeition of the. short-impending earthquake prediction.