试用灰色预测法作麻风发病率预测

Trial Forecast of Incidence with Grey Calculation in Leprosy

本文用灰色预测GM(1,1)方程对湛江市1956～1981年的麻风发病率作了预测並与动态数列拟合和指数曲线方程的结果作了比较。结果表明:1.灰色预测法的预测值与实际值拟合良好,近期预侧效果也较满意,但远期预测效果的误差过大。2.和实际值相比,灰色预测法的误差较动态数列拟合法和指数曲线方程的为小。

The incidence of leprosy each year in the period of 1956 to 1981 in Zhanjiang City of Guangdong is forecast with the equation GM (1,1) of grey calculation, and the result is compared with the results of dynamic number sequence fitting and exponential curve equation.The authors found that the forecasted value according to the grey calculation has a better fit with actual value; its short-term forecastng effect is better and the long-term has a larger error, but the error is less than those of dynamic numer sequence fitting and exponential curve equations.