摘要
It is understood that economic assessment is a key issue in the development of offshore oil field. In view of uncertainties in exploration, engineering investment etc. the capital investment will take serious risk, especially for small marginal blocks. In order to investigate the relationships between main economic indices and uncertain factors, the upper and lower fuzzy bounds as well as the tolerance are presented in this paper based on the concept of fuzzy mathematics. Quantizing those uncertainties of concerned factors, the risk of investment can then be identified through conventional cash flow table and sensitivity analysis, consequently, the risk can be reduced through careful handling of the uncertainties. As an example, the economic analysis of a reusable platform in a marginal offshore oil field is presented, which shows the process of fuzzy assessment in exposing severe marginality of the field and the performance of discounted cash flow rate of return by the fluctuation of uncertainties.
It is understood that economic assessment is a key issue in the development of offshore oil field. In view of uncertainties in exploration, engineering investment etc. the capital investment will take serious risk, especially for small marginal blocks. In order to investigate the relationships between main economic indices and uncertain factors, the upper and lower fuzzy bounds as well as the tolerance are presented in this paper based on the concept of fuzzy mathematics. Quantizing those uncertainties of concerned factors, the risk of investment can then be identified through conventional cash flow table and sensitivity analysis, consequently, the risk can be reduced through careful handling of the uncertainties. As an example, the economic analysis of a reusable platform in a marginal offshore oil field is presented, which shows the process of fuzzy assessment in exposing severe marginality of the field and the performance of discounted cash flow rate of return by the fluctuation of uncertainties.
