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月平均环流的长期数值预报 被引量:4

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摘要 本文对当前月平均环流的长期数值预报状况做了总结,用大气环流模式做月平均500hPa高度预报,相关系数约0.4。对两类集合预报,即蒙特卡罗预报与落后平均预报的优缺点进行了比较。最后讨论了月平均环流预报的可预报性,指出有可能做6—11个月的预报,但预报准确率因受气候噪声影响而有一定限度。
作者 王绍武
出处 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 1990年第2期243-248,共6页 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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