应用模糊数学综合决策模型预报一代三化螟蛾发生量

APPLICATION OF FUZZY MATHEMATICS SYNTHESIS DECISION MODEL TO THE PREDICTION OF THE OCCURENCE OF YELLOW RICE BORER IN FIRSTGENERATION

本文采用模糊数学的综合决策模型预报害虫种群动态。分析结果表明,选取武平县气象因子对一代三化螟蛾发生量的趋势预报是适用的。20年资料效果检验,历史拟合率达95％。与其他统计方法相比,使用该方法不仅可以处理模型中间过度中“模糊性”现象,而且能充分利用因子信息,提高趋势预报的精细度。

This paper adopts the nethos of fuzzy mathematics analysis to set up a new and more accurat aynthesis decision model on the basis of the synthetic judgment model with generalized fuzzy operation.the model has been used to predict the occurence of yellow rice borer in the first generation with the meteorological facts of wupin county.The result proves that the model is applicable.Examination wi th theinformation of the past twenty years shows the historical coincidences between the prognosis and the investigations were ninety-five percent.Comparing with the others, using the way can not only deal with the phenomenon of 'fuzziness' in the fuzzy middle transition, but also fully apply the fact information and increase the accuracy,This paper clarifies the calculating method and discusses the details.