小区域人口增长预测方法的探讨

Method of prediction of population Growth for a Small Region

小区域范围人口种群因受环境的制约将显示出较明显的波动,这对人口发展的预测带来—定的困难.本文应用指数曲线回归分析和加权指数平滑预测相结合的方法,在影响人口增长诸因素不完全确知的条件下,对金华市人口发展作短期预测,结果表明,用该方法所得的人口模拟模型较简便,在短期人口发展预测中有一定的参考价值.

Being restricted by its environment,the population of a small region tends to show obvious fluctuations,which brings some difficulty to the prediction of population growth.By coupling the exponential regression analysis with the weighted exponential smoothing method,this paper makes a shortterm predic- tion of Jinhua's population growth,under the condition that the various fac- tors affecting population growth have not yet been fully ascertained.The resul- ts indicate that the population simulation model obtained this way is compara- tively simple and convenient.It has a certain value of reference in predicting a short-term population growth.