摘要
本文概述了灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,分析了在闽、台地区地震年最高震级拟合与外推预测中的应用效果,并检验了理论值与原始数据的关联度。
In this paper, series forecasting model in grey system theory is described. The annual maximum magnitudes of shock in Fujian-Taiwan Region were fitted and predicted by using the model. The residual errer rates of predicted values and original data were 6.1% ( Fujian ) & 5.7% (Taiwan ). The relational grade check indicated that the relational grades of fitted values & original data all satisfy the requirements, V_(01)≥0.6. The optimum input length of original data, predicting the maximum magnitude of shock in the next year, is from five to seven for Taiwan Region:
出处
《应用海洋学学报》
CSCD
1989年第4期61-68,共8页
Journal of Applied Oceanography
