黄海南部盐度预报及分析

SALINITY PREDICTION AND ITS ANALYSES FOR THE SOUTHERN HUANGHAI SEA

我们于1978—1980年对黄海南部近海区春季(4—6月)的盐度分布预报试验研究,得出两种比较适用于本海区的盐度预报方法。文中简要介绍了这两种统计预报方法,并对影响本海区盐度变化的显著因子及预报误差进行了分析。预报试验的结果是:预报的总体平均绝对误差为0.44‰,预报相对误差为25％,预报总体偏差为-0.16‰,预报误差小于0.5‰的站数占总站数的72％,预报趋势和实测资料基本一致。

Based on the prediction experiments on the salinity distribution of the southern Huanghai Sea in spring (April-June) from 1978 to 1980, two salinity-prediction methods suitable for the region are obtained. The methods are briefly introduced and the marked factors affecting salinity variation and the prediction error are analysed. Results from the prediction experiments indicat the absolute prediction error of ensemble mean as 0.43‰, the relative error as 25%, the deviation error as -0.16 ‰, and the stations with prediction error less than 0.5‰ accounting for 72% of the total. There is a little difference between prediction ten-dency and measured data.