辽西地震危险性的灰色预测

THE GRAY THEORY PREDICTING EARTHQUAKE RISK IN THE WEST LIAONING

辽西位于华北板块北缘,辽西隆起带上,辽西地震活动与华北密切相关,在华北第四地震活动期中,辽西处于磁县—朝阳地震带和丹东—朝阳地震条带交汇处。根据灰色理论预测表明,辽西近期已不大可能发生六级左右地震,但其周围地区近几年很可能发生七级左右地震。

The West Liaoning Swell as a tectonic element is located in north border of North China Continent block. The seismicity of West Liaoning is Closely associated with the North China. The Cixian-Chaoyang seismic belt and DanDong—Chaoyang seismic belt is crossed at West Liaoning in the fourth siesmicity period of North China. By gray system theory predicting Seimic risk shows that for earthquake about 6 magnitude to occur in West Liaoning in future is impossible, But is it possible that earthquake of about M=7 will occur around West Liaoning in years to come.