云锡矿工肺癌的时间序列预测与分析

Time Series Forecasting and Analysis for the Incidence of Lung Cancer of Tin Miners in Yunnan Province

本文采用时间序列方法中的 AR 模型和非平稳时间序模型对云锡老矿各年代下井矿工的肺癌死亡进行了预测,得到了1936～1995年期间各组矿工肺癌死亡的预测情况,并在此基础上进行了分析,对解放后所采取的防护、防治措施的奏效程度进行了评价,对云锡矿工肺癌的发病趋势作了宏观和微观的结论,是一篇综合性的论文报告。

This paper is a comprehensive report to apply Auto-Regreesive (AR)model and non-stationary time series model in the forecasting of lung cancer death of miners in an old tin mine,Yunnan province.The miners are first divided into six groups according to their year-of-begining-underground, then the AR model and the non-stationary time series model are set up based on the lung cancer death data and SMR(Standard Mortality Rate)series resp- ectively for each group.The forecasting death that may possibly happen during the period from 1986 to 1995 is finally made out from the model set.The forecasting results are shown in detail in this paper.Based on the forecasting and the analysis about SMR series,it is pointed out that the prevention and treatment adopted after China’s liberation have achieved efect.and that, however,the professional lung cancer will threat tin miner forever.As an encouraging predition,it is concluded that the high incidence of lung cancer happened in the past yaers may never return again through macrocosmic and microcosmic study on the incidence of lung cancer for each group.