三化螟逐步回归统计预测模型的研究

Studies on Stepwise Regression Models of Rice Stem Borer

本文用逐步回归方法建立三化螟发生量和发生期的预测模型.对建立模型的方法、步骤、因子选择以及 F 值的确定进行较详细的讨论.模型回报验证符合率大部分达80%以上,可供实际测报参考应用。

Twenty models were developed by stepwise regression methods to predict the occurence amount and date of rice stem borer (Scipophaga incertulas).The methods and procedures to develop stepwise regression models were discussed too.It was shown that the accuracy of 15 models is more than 80%,others from 72% to 78%.The coefficient of recorrelation R varied from 0.70 to 0.96.