马尔柯夫链模型预测三化螟发生趋势

Studies on the Tendency Prediction of Rice Stem Borer Population with Markov Model

本文把三化螟的年间数量变动作为一个离散系统,然后根据马尔柯夫链模型研究其轻、中、重发生的初始概率、转移概率,预测其今后7至10年的发生趋势;同时设置不同条件的转移概率,模拟未来5至7年的变化趋势,为制定防治决策提供依据.

The fluctuation of rice stem borer population was treated as a discrete system.The initial probability and the transfer probability in three status (light status,middle status,and serious status) were caculated.With the Markov model,the prediction of population tendency in the fucture from 7 to 10 years was made and the simulation of population tendency in three condictions was done too.