摘要
本文评述近十余年国外利用全球三维大气环流模式制做夏季季风区域的模拟与敏感试验。通过比较模拟场与观测场表明,全球大气环流模式有较强的能力来模拟季风区域的各种主要特征。全球大气环流模式的敏感试验研究了季风形成的物理机制。本文对几个可能的物理因子如土壤湿度、地面反照率、海面温度、雪盖、海冰以及山地作用等的敏感试验给予专门评述,并给出不同海温状况下季风区降水特点。最后讨论与展望了有关季风的可预报性问题。
The comments on simulations and sensitivity experiments in the summer monsoon regionsusing the atmospheric general circulation models(GCMs)for the lastest ten years have been pre-sented in this paper.Comparing the simulations with the observed data,the atmospheric generalcirculation models are capable of simulating the main characteristics in the monsoon regions.The physical mechanisms of monsoon are investigated by means of the sensitivity experi-ments of the GCMs.The comments on the effects of several possible physical factors such as thesoil moisture,surface albedo,sea surface temperature,snow cover,sea ice and mountain are sum-marized.The distributions of the rainfall in the monsoon regions for the different types of seasurface temperatures are given.The predictability of monsoons and its prospects are discussed.
