宁夏南部山区级济与人口、资源、环境协调发展的系统动态分析

System Dynamic Analysis of Harmonization between the Economic Development and the population, Resources and Environment in tne Hilly Area of Southern Ningxia

本文采用建立系统动力学模型仿真的方法。对生态破坏严重、贫困落后的宁夏南部山区生态经济系统,进行经济与人口、资源、环境协调发展的预测分析。模型运行结果表明:宁南山区的环境保护治理,应实行以水土资源合理开发、综合利用、有效保护为核心的区域综合开发整治战略;调整系统内部结构和发挥科技进步的作用,是优化系统功能的主要环节,同时必须增加系统外部的物质能量投入,和全面贯彻人口政策。

By means of system dynamic simulation models, a quantitative calculation and analysis of the harmonization between the economic development and the population, resources and environment was described on ecologic-economic system in the hilly area of southern Ningxia, where exists a violent depres- sion of eco-environment and social economy. The results of the model oper- ation indicated that, for the environmental protection and administration in the area, a synthetic regional development and administration strategy should be taken with the rational exploitation, comprehensive utilization and effective protection of water-soil resources as the core; that the regulation of the internal structure of the ecologic-economic system and the promotion of science and technology are the key link for the improvement of the sys- tem function; and that an increased investment of material and energy from the external and a complete implement of the population policies are in urgent need.