双层认知与外交调整--以20世纪80年代中国外交政策调整为例

Two-level Perception Model and Foreign Policy Adjustment

外交调整是指对外关系模式的变化。双层认知分析模式认为,国际环境的变动和国内环境的变化是外交调整的根源,是结构性条件,但外交是否调整、如何调整,则取决于决策者的认知、评估和反应,如果决策者的原有观念发生变革,则外交政策也发生变化。只有决策者认为现行政策正带来痛苦的损失,不调整政策将一定造成更大的损失,获益比例高于损失时,才可能促动观念调整和外交政策变化。否则,仍将保持原状。作者通过对20世纪80年代中国转变"一条线"战略,实行不结盟的、独立自主的和平外交政策这一案例研究,证明了双层认知分析模式的合理性。

Foreign policy adjustment refers to the changing pattern of external relations.The two-level perception model adheres to the view that structural conditions have no independent impact on foreign policy decision-making,in other words,it is not the objective reality that counts.The model assumes that sources of change need to be perceived by decision-makers and trigger alterations in their beliefs in order to have an impact on foreign policy adjustment.The change is most likely when decision-makers perceive that their current foreign policy is incurring painful costs,and that a failure to change strategy will be certain to cause painful costs.In 1980's,China readjusted its foreign policy from 'one line' to independent peace and nonalignment,which justified the two-level perception model.