基于Bass模型的城镇家用电脑市场扩散研究

A Study on the Market Diffusion of Home Computer in Urban Areas Based on Bass Model

本文运用Bass模型研究了我国城镇家用电脑市场的扩散过程,并且用Logistic模型和Gompertz曲线模型验证了它的有效性,根据扩散模型参数用聚类方法划分出各个地区所属的扩散类别,并分析了每一类别的特点及影响因素。结果表明,当前我国城镇家用电脑市场发展迅速,从2011年始发展速度将放缓,并于2025年左右趋于饱和。城镇家用电脑的扩散在不同扩散类别中有着显著差异,这种差异主要是由地区经济发展不均衡造成的,此外还与居民消费习惯、文化知识水平等因素有关。

This paper applies Bass model to study the diffusion course of home computer in urban areas, and the validity of the model is tested by Logistic model and Gompertz model. According to the parameters of home computer diffusion models of different regions the cluster analysis is used to classify the diffusion patterns in different regions, and the characteristics of every cluster as well as the influence factors are analyzed. The resulsts show that the present home computer market in urban areas of our conutry is developing rapidly, and the development speed will be slowdown from 2011 and tend to saturation at 2025 or so. The diffusion of home computer in urban areas has significant differences in the different diffusion types, and the difference is mainly caused by the non-equilibrium of region economy development, in addition, it has relations with the peoples＇ consumption habits and the cultural knowledge level.