基于情景分析的群体性事件情报预警

Early Intelligence Warning Against Massive Disturbance Based on Scenario Analysis

情景分析法在军事情报领域和竞争情报领域中已得到广泛应用。结合群体性事件情报预警工作的现状，适当借鉴该方法的合理因素，结合具体操作，力求为群体性事件情报预警系统提供科学的方法和策略。

The paper presents the scenario analysis which is widely used in the military intelligence field and the competitive intelligence field. It also analyses the feasibility of the application of the early intelligence warning in massive disturbance. Finally, the paper is based on the practice of the early intelligence warning of massive disturbance of the border control forces and researches on the application of it.