中国城市异速增长分析

Urban Allometric Growth in China:Theory and Facts

在对国内外城市异速增长方程的讨论进行回顾的基础上,采用1990年、2000年和2005年中国城市建成区和人口普查的城镇人口数据,分析了中国城市用地与城镇人口之间的异速增长关系,在对标度因子的标准值进行充分讨论后,认为1990年中国城市增长是负异速增长,2000年和2005年呈现正异速增长的状态,中国东、西部城市样本也表现出这种规律,而中部城市在1990年,2000年保持了原有的建设用地与人口增长的比例,但在中部崛起的政策下,2005年表现为正异速增长,该结论与中国在流动人口的变化、住房体制改革和开发区快速拓展有密切关系。

Based on a review on urban allometric equation, this paper analyzes the allometric growth relationship between urban area and urban population in China by using the data of the urban built-up area and the total population of cities and towns in 1990, 2000 and 2005. After an in-depth discussion of the standard value of the scaling factor, the paper concludes that urban growth in China is negative allometry in 1990 and positive one in 2000 and 2005. Sample cities in the eastern and western China also show the same law. In contrast to this, cities in central China maintain the original proportion of built-up land growth with population growth; however, they show positive allometry in 2005 because of the promotion policy for central China. The conclusion is closely related to the changes in migrant population, housing system reform and the rapid expansion of development zones.