中国对外贸易结构与产业结构关系的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Relationship between China's Foreign Trade Structure and Industrial Structure

本文基于1989—2007年的统计数据,利用协整检验和Granger因果检验的计量方法研究了中国产业结构与对外贸易结构的关系。实证结果表明,产业结构变化与对外贸易结构变化存在长期稳定的协整关系与单向的因果关系。最后本文对这些实证结果做了进一步解释,并相应地提出了优化出口结构与实现产业结构升级的具体政策建议。

Based on the statistical data of 19 89-2007, using the econometric method of cointegration test and Granger causality test, this paper discusses the relationship between China＇s industrial structure and foreign trade structure. The empirical results show that there exists a long-run cointegration relationship and a one-way causality between the changes of industrial structure and foreign trade structure. Finally, this paper gives a further explanation to the empirical results and proposes the concrete corresponding policy suggestions to optimize export structure and upgrade industrial structure.