危险化学品泄漏事故泄漏源强反算方法比较研究

Comparative Study on the Back-calculation Methods for the Intensity of Leakage Sources in Chemical Leakage Accidents

比较现有的主要大气源强反算方法,包括Safer实时响应系统中使用的反算方法、基于遗传算法的反算方法、基于最佳摄动量法的反算方法和利用逆向轨迹反演模式的反算方法;对4种反算方法的应用做比较研究,分析各种方法的特点、不足以及适用性,根据各自在实际事件中的应用效果判定算法在应急响应过程的可行性。笔者将牛顿-拉弗森法作为寻根法应用到Safer系统的反算法中,并结合企业生产实际对其应用效果进行验证;结果表明,基于寻根法的Safer反算法反算速度快,结果准确度高,更适用于应急响应过程。同时在各种方法比较的基础上对应急响应应用提出了建议。

Several back-calculation methods are compared, including the one used in the Safer Real- Time Response System, the one based on Genetic Algorithms, the one based on optimal momentum and the one using backward track mode. The characteristics, deficiency and applicability of various methods are comparatively analyzed. The feasibility of the algorithm in emergency response process is determined according to actual application results. The Newton-Raphson as a root-finding method is applied to backcalculation in Safer System, and verified through its application effect in actual situation. This method is approved to be faster and more accuracy, and more applicable to the emergency response process. Finally, suggestions are proposed in the application of the methods in emergency response.