从现金/收入比率及其变动看我国支付产业的发展

On the Development of Modern Payments Industry In View of Cash/GDP Ratio and Its Changes

现代支付产业的发展主要表现为各种非现金支付工具的使用和普及及其对现金使用的替代作用。本文认为评价现代支付产业发展成就应当联系到流通中现金/GDP指标,同时承认这个指标也受到诸如利率和通货膨胀率等因素的影响。本文对我国1978年以来流通中现金/GDP指标的计量检验结果表明,在1978～1993年和1994～2007年两个时间段中,代表支付工具的趋势变量前后呈现不同的作用。这个结果表明,现代支付产业在我国的快速发展主要出现在晚近时期,与借计卡和信用卡等非现金支付工具的普及有紧密联系。随着非现金支付工具的进一步普及和创新发展,我们预计流通中现金/GDP比率在未来还会下降。

The development of modern payments industry is mainly reflected in the creation and ever-increasing use of non-cash payment instruments, which will have the effect that saves the use of cash. The paper attempts to use the cash/GDP indicator in evaluating the development of payments industry in post -1978 China, and acknowledges that the indicator is also affected by some other economic variables such as inflation and interest rate. By controlling these variables, the author＇s estimate finds that the representative variable for payment industry shows two different effects in the periods before and after the mid - 1990s. The finding leads us to believe that real progress in modern payments industry occurred only in the latter period, which is associated with largescale introduction of credit cards among other others. Based on the analytical result and observations of recent developments, the paper predicts the cash/GDP ratio is to decline further in the country in the future.