汇率水平、生产成本与贸易发展——基于动态博弈模型分析

Analysis on Exchange Rate,Producing Cost and Trade Development Based on Dynamic Game Theory Model

该文基于动态博弈模型分析了一国汇率和产品生产成本变化对国内贸易和进出口贸易的影响,得出一国汇率与国内贸易和出口正相关,而产品生产成本与国内贸易和出口负相关,同时汇率对生产成本发挥作用的程度具有乘数效应的结论。充分认识这种关系有利于正确把握社会主义市场经济条件下的宏观调控方向,对中国实现经济又好又快发展意义重大。

This paper has analyzed the impact of exchange rate and producing cost on domestic and import - export trade based on the dynamic Game Theory model, concluded that exchange rate is in positive correlation with domestic trade and export while producing cost in negative correlation with domestic trade and export, and meanwhile, the impact of exchange rate on producing cost has multiplying effect. Recognition of such relations has critical significance to steer the macro - control of socialist market economy towards the right direction as well as realize the sound and fast development of China＇economy.