中美经济波动的国际贸易传导机制实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the International Trade Transmission Mechanism of Sino-US Economic Fluctuations

在经济全球化的大趋势下,国际贸易已经是一个国家的经济波动在国际间传导和扩散的重要传导渠道之一。通过在1998-2007年十年间的季度经济数据基础上,用VAR脉冲响应和方差分解等计量方法,对中美经济波动的国际贸易传导机制进行实证分析,得出结论:中美经济波动的国际贸易传导机制在长期中并不发挥作用,只是在短期内中国对美国出口贸易的传导在一定程度上还发挥着作用,并且美国经济波动只有在短期内对中国经济波动有一定程度的影响,而在长期美国经济波动对中国经济波动并没有影响。

Under the general trend of economic globalization, international trade has already become one of the major transmission channels of the economic fluctuations from one counlry to transmit and diffuse intemationally. Based on the quarterly economic data from 1998 to 2007, with the measurement methods of VAR impulse response and the variance decomposition, this paper performs an empirical analysis of the international trade transmission mechanism of the Sino-US economic fluctuations. The results show that the international trade transmission mechanism of the Sino-US economic fluctuations plays little role in the long run, it only plays some role in the short run in the transmission of export trade from China to U.S.. The economic fluctuations of U.S. can influence China＇s economic fluctuations to a certain degree only in the short-term, while in the long-term the American economic fluctuations have no impact on China＇s economic fluctuations.