基于灰色马尔科夫组合模型的管道腐蚀速率预测方法

Prediction of Pipeline Corrosion Rate Based on Grey Markov Models

以灰色理论与马尔科夫所组成的组合模型为基础,对管道腐蚀速率的预测进行了研究。在对灰色预测模型进行改进的基础上,得到优化的灰色无偏模型,并利用新的灰色模型对腐蚀速率的趋势项进行了预测;采用马尔科夫模型对预测数据的残差进行预测。为了提高预测的精度,在预测过程中采用了滚动运算方法。结果表明,对灰色模型进行的改进设计是有效的,由改进的灰色理论模型与马尔科夫所组成的组合模型的预测精度较高,同时滚动运算方法也进一步提高了预测的精度。

Based on the model that combined by grey model and markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further.