2008年南方冰灾及其成因分析

Analysis on 2008 Ice Disaster and Its Causes in Southern China

针对2008年初南方低温雨雪冰冻天气,根据大量的实况资料和权威部门发布的信息,综合分析了冰情和灾情 并在此基础上,利用1月10日~2月6日102.0°~122.5°E,20.2°~40.0°N之间59个气象站7008、50 hPa及地面气温、冰冻厚度资料,研究了具体的冰冻演变过程及其成因。得出如下结论：①这次冰灾总体属于50年一遇 ②冰灾主要对5个部门造成严重破坏,直接经济损失1 516.5亿元人民币 ③冰灾的成因主要有：寒潮的爆发导致了冰灾的开始 稳定少变的冷高压不断分裂冷空气补充南下,而偏强偏北的副高使冷空气在江南北部长久停留 稳定的大气环流形势使冰灾得以维持 频繁东移的南支槽为冰灾提供了源源不断的降水条件 强大的逆温层提供了过冷水滴的生长条件。

According to a large amount of meteoronogical data and the information of the authority branch,the condition of 2008 ice disaster in southern China and its loss were synthetically analyzed.The conditional analysis focused on the low temperaturem,rain,snow and frost at the beginning of 2008 in southern China.On the basis of research above, the specific evolution process and the causes of the frost were further discussed,with the help of the data of ice-depth and temperature at 700 hPa,850 hPa and surface of 59 meteorological stations in the 102.0°-122.5° E,20.2°-40.0° N from January 10th to February 6th in 2008.The results showed that this ice disaster could be foreseen once every 50 years. Five departments were badly damaged in this ice disaster,and the direct economic loss was about 1 516.5 billion Yuan.The main causes of this ice disaster were as below： the cold wave triggered the outburst of the ice disaster;the stable cold high pressure made the cold air winding south constantly,an...更多d the subtropical high pressure in west Pacific Ocean was stronger and in the north,which resisted the cold air going down to the southern coastland and made it stay in the southern part of China for a long time.The stable atmospheric circulation situation maintained the ice disaster.South trough which moved eastward frequently provided endless rainfall conditions for the ice disaster.The powerful inversion layer provided growth conditions for supercooled water droplets.