不确定型网络进度仿真研究

Simulation-Based Analysis of Construction Schedule

针对计划评审技术(PERT)处理不确定型网络计划存在的局限性,提出了基于仿真的进度分析方法。该方法采用全过程动态仿真获得活动的持续时间和总工期,由于只需要输入形体和机械设备等基本仿真参数,避免了PERT活动持续时间难以确定的问题;通过统计仿真结果得出施工工期、完工概率、活动关键度等信息,可以更合理地确定工程工期和关键路线。

This paper presents a simulation - based network plan method aim at overcoming the defects of PERT in planning project schedule with uncertain activity - duration. Dynamic simulation of the entire construction process is utilized to obtain the activity durations and project duration. As only basic simulation parameters such as geometrical shape and equipment type are needed the method avoids the difficulty in selection of stochastic function of activity duration in PERT. The construction duration, the completion probability of construction duration, and the critical index of activity are gained by statistical calculation of simulation results. Therefore, the reasonableness of construction duration and critical path are convincing.