飞机在单个射弹打击下的生存概率分析

Survival probability analysis of aircraft under single shot

为定量评估飞机生存力,提出一种计算飞机在单个射弹打击下的生存概率方法.首先对威胁机理命中飞机的脱靶距离进行分析,在脱靶距离服从正态分布的情况下,对威胁机理击中飞机的概率计算公式进行推导;然后,模拟射击线对单个射弹打击下的飞机损伤概率进行计算;最后,对飞机在单个射弹打击下的生存概率进行分析,提出一种模拟射击线计算飞机生存概率的方法.计算方法全面地考虑射弹的速度、质量和弹道极限速度以及射弹对致命性部件的杀伤准则等因素,对飞机生存概率计算以及生存力分析与设计具有积极的意义.

To assess the aircraft survivability quantificationally, a method for calculating the survival probability of an aircraft under single shot is proposed in the paper. Firstly, the undershoot distance that the threat mechanism hits an aircraft is analyzed; under the condition that the undershoot distance obeys normal distribution, the calculating equation of probability that the threat mechanism hits an aircraft is derived. Then the damage probability of the aircraft under single shot is calculated by a shot-line method. The survival probability of the aircraft under single shot is analyzed, and a method to calculate it is proposed. The shot velocity and mass, the ballistic terminal velocities and the kill rules of the shot to critical components are completely considered in the calculation. The proposed calculating method is helpful to the survivability analysis and design of aircraft.