新一代军用飞机技术风险评估研究

Evaluation on technology risk of the new generation of battleplan

技术风险分析是飞机项目风险管理的关键技术之一.为了研究技术风险对飞机的研制工作及其预期性能的影响,分析了技术风险的内涵和影响因素,结合我国航空项目管理中风险识别的特点,给出了技术风险评估的指标体系的构建原则和各指标的量化分析方法.同时,分析了风险识别技术在航空项目风险管理中的具体应用,并初步建立了新一代军用飞机的技术风险评估指标体系.

Analysis of technology risk is the key technology of risk management in aircraft project. To studies the impact of technology risk on aircraft research and its expected performance, the connotation and influence factors of technology risk are analyzed. Some principles of constructing the index system for evaluation of technology risk as well as some methods for the quantitative analysis of each index are provided combiningg with the characteristic of risk identification in the aviation project management. The application of risk identification in the risk management of aviation project is addressed and an index system for evaluating the technology risk of the new generation of battleplan is established primarily.