城市燃气长期负荷的累积法预测

An accumulation method to predict the long-period load of city gas

针对城市燃气负荷预测涉及因素多,部分预测方法不易实现的问题,提出采用计量经济学新方法累积法模型来预测城市燃气负荷,将影响城市燃气负荷的两个主要因素——城市人口和工业产值引入预测模型,并将预测结果与GM(1,N)模型预测结果分别按相对误差,方差和泰尔不等系数三个指标进行比较,比较结果显示累积法预测模型优于灰色GM(1,N)模型,且简单易懂,易于实现计算编程.

Aimed at the difficulty in predicting the city gas load due to many factors involved, the accumulation model in econometrics was adopted to predict the gas load. The city population and industrial production, which are two main factors that influence the gas load, were introduced into the model. The prediction result of the accumulation model was compared with that of the GM （ 1, N） model in aspects of relative error, variance and Tale difference coefficient. It is indicated that the former is better than the latter, which proves that the proposed model is effective in predicting the gas load in a city with advantages of easy to be understood and easy for computer programming.