区域用水水平评价中的集对分析方法研究

Study on the Application of Set Pair Analysis Method in the Evaluation of Regional Water Utilization Level

集对分析是研究客观事物之间确定性与不确定性联系的系统理论和方法,核心是计算事物之间的联系度。提出了根据区域用水情况,利用实际指标值建立用水水平评价标准的方法。运用集对分析理论,对黄河下游沿黄地区的用水水平进行定量研究。研究表明:综合用水水平由高到低排序为艾山—洛口区段(Ⅳ区)、洛口—利津区段(Ⅴ区)、花园口—高村区段(Ⅰ区)、孙口—艾山区段(Ⅲ区)、高村—孙口区段(Ⅱ区),总的评价结果与多层次灰关联综合评价模型一致。集对分析法具有简单实用、评价结果客观等特点,文章所建立的评价标准与集对分析理论相结合有效地解决了区域用水水平的评价问题。

The water resource is the foundation that mankind depends on for his existence and development. Water resource shortage, however, has already become a serious problem faced by the whole world because of human＇s unreasonable utilization. In order to realize the sustainable development of the society and economy of China, we must reinforce the comprehensive evaluation about regional water utilization level. The method of set pair analysis is to study the certain and uncertain relationship among different things and the core of this method is to compute the connec- tion degree of these things. At present, set pair analysis can be applied for such comprehensive evaluations as atmospheric environmental quality evaluation, water safety evaluation and ecological carrying capacity and has certain application prospects in evaluations of resources and environment subjects. According to the actual conditions of regional water utilization, this paper puts forward a new method to build the evaluation standards for estimating the regional water utilization level, which is to build the standards based on the regional actual index values. With the application of the set pair analysis method, this paper, taking the region along the lower Yellow River as the research objective, studies quantificationally the water utilization level in the region. Study areas refer to the regions from Taohuayu to the estuaries of the Yellow River which are irrigated by the Yellow River main stream, covering an area of 4. 43 × 10^4 km2. The areas involve the Yellow River basin, Haihe River basin and Huaihe River basin, and govern 83 counties （districts）, 15 prefectures （cities）, such as Jiaozuo and Heze. The areas, with fast development and centralized politics and economy in Henan and Shandong provinces, hold an important place in domestic economic construction. The result indicates the five regions are sorted as Aishan-Luokou region （regionⅣ ）, Luokou-Lijin region （ region Ⅴ ） , Huayuankou-Gaocun （ region Ⅰ ）, Sunkou-Aishan region （ region Ⅲ ） and Gaocun-Sunkou region （ region Ⅱ ） in descending order according to the identity degree. The comparison result shows the overall results of the set pair analysis method are consistent with that of multi-level grey relation comprehensive evaluation model, and the set pair analysis method has its advantages-simple, practical and impersonal. The evaluation standards built in this paper, which combined with the set pair analysis method, can solve the evaluation problem of regional water utilization level effectively.