距离对中国双边直接投资的影响及其动态变化

The Effect of Distance on the Bilateral Direct Investment of China and Its Dynamic Changes

距离因素在国际贸易和投资领域有着重要的影响,本文利用中国与其他32个国家和地区双边直接投资流量数据,基于引力模型,运用稳健OLS回归法、Tobit回归法和Poisson回归法研究发现,距离对中国双边直接投资虽然有阻碍影响,但这种影响随着时间的推移出现了下降的趋势,这与距离对于双边贸易的影响不同。主要原因是,投资和贸易特性的差别导致它们对距离的敏感度不同。

Distance plays a very important role on international trade and in- vestment. In this paper, by using bilateral direct investment flows data between China and the other 32 countries and regions all round the world, based on the gravity model and robust OLS regression method, Tobit regression and Poisson regression, we find that distance has the negative impact on the bilateral direct investment between China and other countries and regions. But different from the effects of distance on bilateral trade, the negative impacts are on a downward trend with time going, mainly because of the differences between trade and direct investment activities leading the difference of their sensitivity to distance.