全球金融危机对农民工就业的冲击——影响分析及对策思考

Impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on the Employment of Rural Migrant Workers in China

全球金融危机对就业的影响主要体现为对农民工就业的冲击。文章利用《中国统计年鉴》和2005年1%人口抽样调查数据,估算出2008年中国农民工总数约为2.38亿,其中跨省就业的农民工约为7140万。东部地区是这次受金融危机影响最严重的地区;制造业、房地产业和建筑业等行业则是受全球金融危机影响最深的行业。综合来看,2009年上半年中国将面临21世纪以来最为严峻的就业形势,农民工的结构性失业问题突出,估计约有多达3481万左右的农民工面临着结构性失业的风险。文章指出政策的着眼点应该放在如何促进就业岗位和人员之间的匹配上,对农民工的培训也将起到积极的效果。

Since the second half of 2008,China's export sectors have been seriously shocked by the global financial crisis,which has led to millions of job-lossing rural migrant workers.We estimate that the total rural migrant workers was about 238 million in 2008,of which about 71.4 millions were working across provinces.The coastal areas are the mostly hit areas,and the manufacturing,real estate and financing industries are the mostly hit sectors.China will face the most serious employment situation in the first half of 2009 since the new century,and the structural unemployment of rural migrant workers is the main problem .We estimate that around 34.18 million rural migrant workers would be facing the risk of structural unemployment.