体育用品出口贸易与中国进出口贸易互动关系的实证研究

A Positive Research on Interaction between Sporting Goods Export and China's Import and Export Trade

以2004年1月-2007年6月全国进出口总额、进口总额、出口总额和体育用品出口额为分析样本,运用相关分析、单位根检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解技术等方法,对体育用品出口贸易与中国进出口贸易的互动关系进行实证研究。结果表明:体育用品出口贸易与我国进出口贸易、出口贸易、进口贸易存在较高关联度,且4个时间序列变量均为一阶单整I(1)序列。体育用品出口贸易与我国进出口贸易不存在长期稳定的均衡关系,但与出口贸易、进口贸易存在长期稳定的均衡关系。体育用品出口贸易不是我国进出口贸易和出口贸易增长的原因,而进出口贸易、出口贸易却是体育用品出口贸易增长的原因,体育用品出口贸易与进口贸易不存在任何单向上的格兰杰因果原因。进出口贸易、出口贸易、进口贸易对体育用品出口贸易增长波动的总体响应表现为"短期效应明显,长期效应较弱"。进出口贸易、出口贸易与进口贸易增长的波动主要归因于自身因素,体育用品出口贸易对我国进出口贸易事业的贡献程度均维持在较低的水平。

The national gross of imports and exports, imports, exports and sporting goods exports from January 2004 to June 2007 are analyzed by the methods of correlation analysis, unit root reset, co-integration analysis, Granger causality test, pulse response function and variance decomposition technique in the positive research of interaction between sporting goods export trade and China＇ s import and export trade. The results show that there exists high correlative between sporting goods, China＇s export and import trade, import trade and export trade, and the four time series variables are in a whole band-Ⅰ （1） sequence. There is no long term, stable balance between sporting goods export trade and China＇ s import and export trade, but it exists between export trade and import trade. Sporting goods export trade is not the reason for growth, while import and export trade and export trade is responding for sporting goads export growth. There is no one-way on the Granger causality reasons for sporting goods export trade and import trade. Influence of import and export trade, export, import export trade on the sporting goods trade growth fluctuations responses for the overall performance as significant in short-term effects, weak in long-tem effects. The fluctuation and the growth mainly attribute to their own factors. Sporting goods export contributes to China＇s import and export trade at a low level.