中国农业转型中的粮食安全问题——基于区域变化和品种调整的粮食产量增量贡献率分析

Issue on Grain Security in Agricultural Transforming in China:An Analysis for the Grain Increment Contributive Rate of Grain Production Based on Regional-change and Variety-adjustment

中国实行农业结构战略性调整政策以来,农业转型向纵深发展,粮食生产格局正在发生重大转变并经历了"V"形变化轨迹。本文构建一个粮食产量增量贡献率分析式,从时间、空间和品种三维角度综合分析粮食产量增量变化,结果表明粮食产量持续增长泛力,三种区域布局变化的交集位于沿海地区并出现粮食减产过速,关键是稻谷这种高产品种下降过快,这将是影响中国粮食生产持续性并将成为国家粮食安全的潜在性隐患。

In agricultural structural adjustment and economic transforming in China, Chinese grain output has been a 'V' track. The paper designs a computable expression on grain increment contributive rate (GICR), and applies GICR to China’ grain production change between 1995-1999 and 2003-2007. It shows that grain increase continually powerless, the coastal region reduces faster in the three main regional’ combined parts, especially rice variety, thus the author estimate that those may be main factors affecting grain increase continuing and severely hiding trouble for ensuring grain security in the future in China.