摘要
中国实行农业结构战略性调整政策以来,农业转型向纵深发展,粮食生产格局正在发生重大转变并经历了"V"形变化轨迹。本文构建一个粮食产量增量贡献率分析式,从时间、空间和品种三维角度综合分析粮食产量增量变化,结果表明粮食产量持续增长泛力,三种区域布局变化的交集位于沿海地区并出现粮食减产过速,关键是稻谷这种高产品种下降过快,这将是影响中国粮食生产持续性并将成为国家粮食安全的潜在性隐患。
In agricultural structural adjustment and economic transforming in China, Chinese grain output has been a 'V' track. The paper designs a computable expression on grain increment contributive rate (GICR), and applies GICR to China’ grain production change between 1995-1999 and 2003-2007. It shows that grain increase continually powerless, the coastal region reduces faster in the three main regional’ combined parts, especially rice variety, thus the author estimate that those may be main factors affecting grain increase continuing and severely hiding trouble for ensuring grain security in the future in China.
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第4期9-15,共7页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
基金
国家社科基金重点项目"建设现代农业的问题与对策--基于东部沿海地区的实证分析"(编号:07AJY006)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(编号:05JJDZH246)的支持