东北地区地震活动的分期研究及未来趋势估计

SEISMICIT PERIOD ANALYSIS AND FUTURE TENDENCY ESTUMATE OF NORTHEAST CHINA

利用周期图，最大熵谱分析及最优分割方法，对东北地区地震活动的时间序列进行了分析处理。研究结果表明，东北地震时间序列具有比较复杂的周期结构，在时间间隔为２２ａ～２４ａ的主周期中，尚蕴含有时间尺度分别为１０ａ和１２ａ～１４ａ的次周期。两者地震活动水平的差异，构成了东北地震活动的平静与高潮时段。在上述研究的基础上，对东北地震活动进行了详细的分期研究，并对未来东北地区的地震活动趋势进行了估计。

In this paper,seismic period sequence of northeast china is dealt with by the periodogram,maximun entropy analysis and Fisher.The result of research shows that being of one principal period of 22-24yr and two secondary period of 12-14yr and 10yr separately.Between the difference of seismic activity,it is to made up active and quiet period of seismicaly of northeast china. On the basis of study,it is discussed that substage feature and esrimated that future tendency of seismic of northeast china.