通货膨胀目标制与当前我国货币政策选择——基于灵活目标规则分析框架

Inflation Targeting and The Choice of Chinese Monetary Policy:Based on the Flexible Target Rules' Framework

基于灵活目标规则条件,在一般均衡分析框架下从理论和实证角度对通货膨胀目标制进行了深入的分析研究。研究表明:通货膨胀目标制在降低通货膨胀偏差、保持宏观经济稳定等方面相比其他货币政策规则具有优势。为检验通货膨胀目标制是否适合当前我国最优货币政策选择,文章从中央银行独立性、短期货币政策工具及传导机制、利率市场化及通货膨胀指标的选择等方面进行了分析,并以中国实际数据进行实证检验,发现我国尚未完全具备实施通货膨胀目标制所需要的条件。

This paper analyzed the effect of inflation targeting which based on flexible target rules and the general equilibrium analytical framework from theoretical and empirical direction. The results were as follows, the inflation targeting has an advantage over other rules in reducing inflation.In order to verify the suitability of inflation targeting as an analyzed the necessary conditions for the implementation optimal monetary policy of inflation targeting, in China, this paper such as the Central Bank independence, the short-term monetary policy tools and transmission mechanisms, market-oriented interest rate and inflation indicators. It found that the inflation targeting is not a suitable optimal monetary policy choice for Chinese monetary authority at present. But the inflation targeting will be a good choice in the long run.