太阳常数的微小变化在气候变化中的作用

Effect of Slight Change in the Solar Constant on the Climate

将复杂的气候系统抽象为含有云辐射动态反馈过程的高度非线性气候模型，利用分岔理论，分析了该模型的平衡态及其稳定性。计算结果表明，云反照率反馈、地表反照率反馈和水汽反馈是气候系统呈现多平衡态结构的主要因素，是气候变化复杂性根源，而云放射率反馈对系统结构的影响，只有在强烈的水汽放射率反馈条件下才表现明显。较强的地表反照率反馈和水汽放射率反馈，均可在太阳常数仅有微小变化时就能导致全球气候突变。

A new three-component time-dependent climate model is established. The model consists of three equations which respectively governs the change of annually mean global surface temperature, atmospheric temperature and cloud amount. Using the bifurcation theory, the steady states and their stability of the climate model with the change in the solar constant are investigated. The model results show that the cloud and snow-ice albedo feedbacks, water vapor emissivity feedback may lead to multiple stable climate states, namely complexity of climatic variation. Only under the condition of strong water vapor emissivity feedback, the cloud emissivity feedback can change the structure of climate system noticeably. The strong snow-ice feedback and water vapor emissivity feedback can lead to the occurring of global climate jump change, although the solar constant has the slight changes within the range of 1%. 