基于随机模拟的分类预报调度方式风险分析

Risk analysis on classified forecast dispatching mode based on stochastic simulative method

水库防洪分类预报调度方式是在水库防洪预报调度方式基础上提出的一种新型水库调度方式,其风险的大小是决定分类预报调度方式是否可行的关键。通过与防洪预报调度方式比较可以看出,分类典型洪水过程选择是分类预报调度方式增加的风险。因此,本文采用随机模拟蒙特卡洛方法分析典型洪水过程选择给水库防洪分类预报调度方式带来的风险。以调洪最高水位和调洪最大泄量为风险指标,通过分类预报调度方式和预报调度方式调洪结果的比较,分析分类预报调度方式的风险。研究结果表明,相对于预报调度方式,分类典型洪水过程选择并不增加水库防洪分类预报调度方式的风险,相反,由于多套调度规则弥补了单套调度规则适应性差的问题,分类预报调度方式更能满足各类型洪水过程的防洪要求。

Reservoir flood control classified by forecast dispatching mode is a new dispatching method. The risk is the key problem of classified forecast dispathing. In order to analyze the risk of the new dispatching mode, stochastic simulative method has been used. The highest water level and maximum outflow are taken as the risk indexes. According to the comparison results between classified forecast dispatching regulation and unclassified forecast dispatching regulation, the risk of classified forecast dispatching mode can be analyzed. Study results show that compared with unclassified forecast dispatching mode, the classified typical flood process selection does not add the risk of flood classified forecast dispatching and oppositely, because classified forecast dispatching mode can provide more regulations that will make up for the adaptability of single regulation, the flood control requirement of different kinds of flood processes can be satisfied.