投标决策模型在无标底招标中的应用

Application of Bid Decision Model in the Lowest Bid Approach of Engineering Project

对于无标底招标工程,投标的核心是报价.因此,如何确定恰当的投标报价是每位投标人进行报价决策的关键.本文运用蒙特卡罗方法将各单位的最终报价模拟出来,根据招标文件中评分细则的规定就可以获得较有竞争力的报价.将蒙特卡罗模拟引入投标概率分析,改进了以往的概率计算模型,使得计算模型更加符合实际情况,应用更加方便.

For the lowest bid approach of an engineering project, the bidding price is the core of the bid. Therefore, how to determine an appropriate price is the key to the bidding price decision. The final price that each bidder offers is be simulated by Monte Carlo Simulation（MCS）. A competitive price will be got in accordance with the specific evaluation method in the tender documents. MCS is applied in probability analysis of bid, which improves the probability calculation model and makes it more actual and convenient.