我国30年的教育与经济发展关系实证研究

Empirical Study on 30 Years' Relations of Our Country Education and Economic Growth

教育对经济发展的影响可以分为内部作用和外溢作用。本文利用滞后变量模型和Granger因果关系检验理论对1978—2005年我国教育水平(教育内部作用)和经济发展之间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明:我国教育水平对经济发展具有较强的持续推动力,两者之间还存在着相互促进的互动效应;同时发现教育规模的过度扩张将不利于经济社会健康稳定地发展。

Education, which plays a role in the economic developmental process, may divide into the internal action and the overflow function. Ac cording to Lucas＇s definition, education＇s internal action is ＂individual human capital playing a role in its productive forces （rate）. ＂ In this paper, according to the lagged variable model and the Granger cause and result relation examination theory, relation has been studied between our country educational level （education internal action） and the economic development. The result indicates that our country educational level has strongly and continually promoted our country economic development and that there has been the interactive effect which promotes mutually between both. Simultaneously, the result also shows that the excessive expansion of education will not favor the economic development healthily.