沥青路面性能预测模型研究

Pavement Performance Prediction Model for Asphalt Pavement

沥青路面性能预测模型的形式较多,为了使模型选择更合理,结合工程实例,分析讨论了S型模型、多项式模型、指数型模型及马尔可夫概率型模型的预测效果及模型适用性。研究结果表明,每一类模型都有其适用性和局限性,但S型模型表现出较好的综合预测性能,同时,应用简单方便,具有更普遍的适用性。

There are many types of models for prediction pavement performance. In order to choosing a more reasonable model, the prediction results and applicability are discussed of sigmoid model, muhinomial model, exponential model and Markov probability model with real pavement data in this paper. The results show that each model has some applicability and limitations, while sigmoid model presents better general prediction ability, and it can be used conveniently and has more universal applicability. The results are significant for choosing prediction models of pavement performance and the decision - making of pavement maintenance.