托达罗人口流动模型与中国农村剩余劳动力的转移

Todaro Migration Model and Transfer of China's Rural Surplus Labors

长期以来,人们一直认为托达罗模型是解决二元经济结构下人口流动问题的有效措施。但是,我国人口流动的实践证明:托达罗模型没有考虑到农村剩余劳动力的供给不断增加的问题;也没有看到随着第三产业的发展对劳动力的大量需求。托达罗提出的控制农村人口向城市迁移的模型,只是控制了城市人口不会大量增加,在一定程度上加剧了农村人口的增长趋势,把城市中的失业问题转移到了农村,并没有从根源上解决农村剩余劳动力的就业问题。托达罗模型自身的理论缺陷,不仅不能解决我国的农村问题,反而对城市经济发展产生极为不利的影响。应从托达罗人口流动模型中吸取经验教训,取消户籍制度,打破城乡二元劳动力市场分割的局面,建立全国统一的劳动力市场,允许农村剩余劳动力向城市迁移,降低劳动力迁移成本,加快我国城市化进程。

For a long time, people always think that Todaro model is an effective measure to solve the migration problem under dual e-conomic structuro. The facts of migration in China, however, show that Todaro model ignores the constant increase of rural surplus labors and the heavy labor demand with the development of the tertiary industry. Todaro model against rural population migrating to urban area only restrains the increase of urban population but aecderates the increase of rural population, it transfers unemployment to rural area while does not solve employment of rural surplus labors. Hence, due to its theoretical defect, Todaro model cannot settle Chinese rural problem, in addition to, have negative effect on urban economie development. In brief, we should learn lessons from Todaro migration model, canceling household registration system and separation of dual labor market, building unified labor market allowing rural surplus labors to migrate to urban area, decreasing labor migration cost, and advancing urbanizing process in China.