北京汛期暴雨与厄尔尼诺事件

The Torrential Rain of Flood Period over Beijing Area and El Nino Event

利用北京近百年逐日降水资料和厄尔尼诺事件、非厄尔尼诺事件的资料进行初步分析表明，在厄尔尼诺最大影响年的北京汛期易干旱，相当暴雨日数≤４天；在非厄尔尼诺最大影响年的北京汛期易多雨偏涝，相当暴雨日数≥５天；在厄尔尼诺最大影响年的次年和下一个非厄尔尼诺最大影响年时，北京汛期相当暴雨日数相对增多；反之，非厄尔尼诺最大影响年的次年和下一个厄尔尼诺最大影响年时，北京汛期相当暴雨日数相对减少。

Based on the centenary rainfall data in Beijing and El Nino event data and Un El Nino event data (include La Nina event), the relation of the torrential rain and El Nino event was analysed. It is shown that (a) the flood period emerge drought and the number of the equivalent torrential rain day is less than four at the maximum effective year of El Nino event, the flood period emerge flooding and the number of the equivalent torrential rain day is more than four at the maximum efective year of Un Elnino event. (b) the number of the equivalent torrential rain day increases relatively in the next year of the Maximum effective year of El Nino event or next maximum effective year of Un El Nino event. The number of the equivalent torrential rain day reduces relatively in the next year of Un El Nino event or Next maximum effective year of El Nino event.