山东各区夏季降水的多步预测试验

The Experiments of Multi step prediction for Summer Rainfall in Shandong Province

在对山东夏季降水进行分区的基础上，用相关分析的方法分析了各区降水与前期、同期大气环流特征量及海温的遥相关关系，结果表明：山东夏季降水与大气环流特征量及海温相关性显著。在此基础上筛选因子，利用多维均生函数建模方案，对２０００年前各区及全省夏季降水趋势进行预测。

By dividing Summer rainfall in Sandong province, the teleconnections between precipitation in each divisions and the circulation characteristicts in and before summrs and the sea surface temperature are studied by means of correlative analysis. The results show that the correlations between summer rainfall and circulation characteristics and SST are significant. Based on the above analysis, the factors are selected, and the prediction models of multidimension mean generation function are developed. Finally, the summer rainfall tendencies before the year of 2000 in each division and the whole province are given.