中国贸易政策调整与出口结构变化分析:2006—2008

Analysis on the China's Policy Adjustments of Foreign Trade and the Changes of Export Structure 2006—2008

本文认为,2005年7月人民币汇率改革后的三年,国家对出口贸易政策进行了较大幅度调整,执行这些政策的结果是出现了出口贸易快速增长的回落,并引起了中国出口贸易结构的若干变化。这种变化是"价格转移"的结果,并以出口竞争力削弱和出口商品结构高级化停滞为代价,因此没有实现转变出口贸易增长方式的目的。相反,"十五"期间的出口贸易高速增长、特别是沿海地区和加工贸易出口高速增长状态反倒有助于出口商品结构的优化提升。那种认为只有让出口增长减速、特别是限制加工贸易发展,才能转变出口贸易增长方式的认识值得反思。在今后应对国际金融危机中,为了恢复和增强我国出口商品竞争力,必须采取包括人民币汇率调整在内的出口贸易救助措施。

China＇ s government practiced a packed adjustment policies of exports during recent three years after the reform of RMB exchange regime since July 2005, it was available to restrain the China export growth speed, and appeared in some changes of export structure. However, these changes resulted in the ＂price shift＂, and has paid the costs of going down for export competitive strength and degrade of export structure, therefore, it was impossible to meet the goal of transferring export growth mode. In contrary, the upgrade of China export structure has been supported by the situation of high speed growth of export trade, especially the high speed growth of manufacture processing trade in coastal arrears during the period of the ＂10th Five Years Plan＂ in China. It was wrong for such argument, which can be helped for transferring export mode only to keep export growth speed decreased, in particularly to retrain manufacture processing export. The government must practice new relief policies to export including exchange rate of RMB in order to resume and build up competitive strength of Chinese export commodity in dealing with the challenge of international financial crisis in the coming days.