我国发展生物柴油的不确定分析

Uncertainty Analysis of Biodiesel Development in China

随着中国经济对能源需求的增长以及化石能源所固有的环境污染、温室效应问题,我国近年来开展了一家列以生物柴油为目标的科研与生产。目前其成本计算大多都是基于现有的石化柴油与生物柴油的成本的简单比较,没有考虑到其他的成本因素,如:石油价格上涨可能带来以石油产品为原料的生物柴油原料的成本上升(成本推动效应);石油价格上涨必然带来农产品价格的上升或供应的减少,由于农产品之间存在资源或产品的竞争性,这些农产品价格的上升会从需求方面拉动生物柴油的原料价格上升(需求拉动效应);由于受到农业规模的限制,农业劳动力的转移或结构性限制,油菜籽的供给等其他成本因素也存在一些不确定性;以木本油料植物为原料的生物柴油,存在原料收集、储运成本高等问题。这些因素对生物柴油开发的效应只有在模型的基础上,通过系统的均衡分析才能加以回答。

The development of the biodiesel industry has drawn much attention in China because of increasing demand for energy due to a rapidly expanding economy, and growing concern about greenhouse gases emissions in particular and pollution in general. But existing research and development projects in China are based mainly on the experiences of other countries who have seriously considered hiodiesel as an alternative fuel source. However, many of these analyses are only simplified production cost and benefit comparisons between diesel and biodiesel. There are many cost factors relating to biodiesel production that are frequently overlooked. For example, increasing of oil prices may also increase the variable costs of biomass production. Supply of agricultural products may decrease because crops may be sold as feedstock, thereby inducing a price increase for some commodities. Production scale, labor mobility, and institutional regulations may also play some role in crops used for biodiesel feedstock. Lastly, collection, storage, and transportation costs can be very high for biomass in some regions of China, To understand how these factors will affect the development of biodiesel industry, we need more thorough economic analyses relevant to the context of China. Such an approach should consider use of general and partial equilibrium modeling and detailed cost-benefit analyses to gauge risk.